Dengue patients likely to increase again

The dengue hospitalization rate declined in the last couple of weeks but experts said that there  was no reason to be optimistic right now.

The possibility of dengue infection rising again until October, when post monsoon season ends, cannot be ruled out, they said.

Dengue infection occurs with the advent of monsoon together humid weather which favour breeding the aedes mosquito, the vector for the deadly dengue virus.

In Bangladesh, monsoon spans June to September and the post monsoon season ends in  October.

According to the Met Office forecasts in September the rainfall might more than it was in August across the country.

Entomologists said rains could lead to water stagnation, the breeding grounds for aedes mosquito, and, therefore, increase the dengue infection rate.

‘Dengue infection usually continue until  October, the post monsoon season in our country,’ said Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research director Dr Meerjady Sabrina Flora.

‘In fact, the dengue history in Bangladesh says, the rate of dengue infection increases in October,’ she told New Age.

More dengue infections occurred this year in the first three weeks of August – before and after  Eid-ul-Azha-- but it declined since August 22, when at least 1,597 patients were hospitalized.

At least 1,446 patients were hospitalized on August 23, and around 1, 200 per day in the next week.

On August 30, dengue patient hospitalization rate fell to 1,025, but in the next two days 760 and 902 patients were hospitalized and on Monday 865 were hospitalized.

Entomologist at Directorate General of Health Services Khalilur Rahman said that the weather condition would determine whether or not dengue infection would increase or decrease.

He told New Age that the aedes mosquito  population  would decrease if the hot weather continues with low rainfall in the coming days.

But if the rains increase aedes breeding would also increase, he said.

And according to the Met Office forecast at least in 18 to 20 days in the current month all the eight divisions could see normal showers exceeding the rainfall in August.

‘The rainfall in September could be between 250 to 460 mm,’ weatherman Bazlur Rashid told New Age.

In August, rainfall ranged between 241 mm and  421 mm in the eight divisions, he said.

Entomologist Khalilur Rahman said the recent decrease of dengue infection rate  happened due to all-out efforts made by residents and the civic authorities to keep aedes mosquito at bay.

‘We have to make intensified efforts to destroy  aedes mosquito habitats and keep everyone safe from mosquito bites,’ he said.

Aedes mosquitoes live in and around urban habitats and breed mostly in man-made clean water-filled containers like giveaway cans, pots, cups, flower tubs, coconut shells and tyres in and around households.

Unlike other mosquitoes, aedes bites during the  daytime. Its peak biting period is two hours after sunrise and two hours before sunset.

This year dengue infection witnessed an unprecedented rise. And since January, at least 71,962 patients were hospitalized, according to the Health Emergency Operation Centre and Control Room.

While the dengue outbreak initially remained confined to the capital, as had been the case since the first reported occurrence of dengue in 2000, but the infection began to spread outside the capital in the fourth week of July.

The dengue infection spread throughout Bangladesh in the first week of August and it became more severe than in the capital since August 8, with at least 40,973 dengue patients  hospitalized, 22,967 in the outlying districts and 18,006 in the capital.

On Monday, at least 865 dengue patients were hospitalized, 469 in the districts and 396 in the capital.

On Monday, a security guard of a private company, Hasan Fakir, 45, died of dengue at Dhaka Medical College Hospital.

The Health Services Control Room so far  received reports of 188 suspected dengue deaths but according to unofficial counts dengue claimed many more lives this year.

Hasan from Bagerhat lived at Chawkbazar in the capital with his family.

News Courtesy: www.newagebd.net