CORONAVIRUS ADB projects losses for Bangladesh

The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Bangladesh economy will be limited to 0.01 per cent of its gross domestic product in a moderate to worse-case scenario, according to an analysis of the Asian Development Bank.

The Manilla-based ADB on Friday released the analysis report titled ‘The economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on developing Asia’.

The analysis said that Bangladesh’s economic losses would be equivalent to  $ 8 million in the best-case, $16 million in a moderate-case and $30 million in a worse-case scenario.

People ranging from 2,000 to 7,000 may also lose their jobs in the best-case to worse-case scenarios, the report said.

The multilateral agency also projected a hypothetical worst-case situation in which the Bangladesh economy might lose 1.10 per cent of its GDP or $ 3.02 billion if a significant outbreak occurs in the country.

The size of Bangladesh’s GDP was $274 billion in 2018.

In the hypothetical worst-case scenario, 8.95 lakh people will lose their jobs due to the coronavirus impact.

According to the report, the COVID-19 situation will have a significant impact on the regional economies in numerous ways, including through sharp declines in the domestic demand, lower tourism and business travels, loss of trade and production linkages, supply disruptions and health effects.

The magnitude of the economic impact will depend on how the outbreak evolves which remains highly uncertain, it said.

The range of scenarios explored in the analysis suggests a global impact of $77 billion to $347 billion or 0.1 per cent to 0.4 per cent of the global GDP.

Some two-thirds of the impact would fall on China from where the outbreak has originated and concentrated so far, a prediction said.

According to the analysis, economic losses of Bangladesh will be mostly in the industrial and service sectors due to disruption in the supply and decline in the number of tourists.

Of every 100 international tourists visiting Bangladesh, four come from China.

The fall in the tourism revenue of Bangladesh was assumed to be ranging from $3.1 million to $9.4 million.

Though Bangladesh’s total export as the share of its GDP is very insignificant, the country’s global value chain exposure is more than 1 per cent, according to the analysis.

News Courtesy: www.newagebd.net